Downtown Blog, Downtown Phoenix News
ASU Research suggests Real Estate Prices may have hit bottom
July 16, 2009 by Lyle Plocher · Leave a Comment
Source: Phoenix Business Journal by Adam Kress – Wednesday, July 15th, 2009
New research from ASU shows Phoenix-area home prices are at or close to a market bottom.
The Arizona State University Repeat Sales Index reported a 37-percent year-over-year decline in both February and March. But the new April 2008 to April 2009 report shows a lesser 35-percent drop. Preliminary estimates for May and June show annual drops of 33 percent and 31 percent, respectively
The ASU-RSI measures changes in average Phoenix-area home prices from year to year.
“April is the first month with a slower annual rate of decline, and the progressively smaller declines over the next two months are pretty good evidence that the worst of the price drops are in the past,” said Karl Guntermann, Fred E. Taylor Professor of Real Estate at W.P. Carey School of Business at ASU. He helps calculate the index. “While the housing market is still quite volatile, it may turn out that the low point in terms of price occurred in May, almost three years after prices peaked in the Valley.”
The current slide in home prices is the longest in Phoenix-area history at 26 months.
Preliminary estimates put the median Phoenix-area home price for June at $119,000. That’s up from $115,000 in May and $117,000 in April.
However, Guntermann said the large number of foreclosed properties being sold at distressed price levels suggests the median price is not likely to go up significantly for a while.
